14 comments

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  Me

  1 year ago

  Yay! She was like a turd that wouldn't flush, but she's finally gone now :D I'm hoping Kirtsten wins the competition, she certainly deserves to.
  
  Thanks again for the recap.
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  Mythor

  1 year ago

  I'm still holding out hope for Sam!
  But yes, no tears for Michelle being punted again. Good stuff!
  
  You're welcome!
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• 

  karngga

  1 year ago

  To get to what would be considered as a good average weight to height ratio for each of them:
  
  Garry needs to lose 36.4kgs and will have a % loss of 49.08%
  Alison needs to lose 19.9kgs and will have a % loss of 50.70%
  Sam needs to lose 10kgs and will have a % loss of 41.79%
  Kirsten needs to lose 12.2kg and will have a % loss of 44.79%
  Bryce needs to lose 8.7kg and will have a % loss of 38.94%
  
  Given that they have one more weighin to go and then a minimum of 6 weeks at home, its probable that Sam, Kirsten and Bryce will reach these goal weights, if not exceed them. Sam could easily drop a further 5kgs and be on the same goal weight as Bryce (Sam is only a couple of centimetres taller) which would bring him to 45.02%. Garry will struggle to drop 36kgs in 7-8 weeks, thats 5kgs a week. Alison needs to drop 20kgs or around 2.5-3.0kgs / week and it will be tough for her but I think she can do it. Kirsten could also drop a further 5kgs and that would bring her to 48.74% and around 2kgs a week.
  
  What it amounts to though is if the three Blues get through as has been heavily rumoured, the Finale is going to be extremely interesting and I think it will come down to who goes under their goal weights by the most. It could really end up being a battle between Kirsten and Alison.
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  Nat

  1 year ago

  Great work, Karngga.
  I too was doing the sums last week about each contestant's potential loss if they reach their goal weight.
  
  I think Allison and Garry are too far away from their goal weights to really be a look in. Looking at Garry's up and down performance and the fact he will have to do it on the ouside without 24/7 supervision, just isn't going to be possible. As for Allison, well, I worry that when she gets home to the husband, kids and stess of her normal daily life that it might be hard to sustain the same intensity that she has going in the white house.
  
  Kirsten is very tall. I think getting under her goal weight of 70kg will require a huge amount of work even as little as 5kgs under.
  
  I don't think Bryce started heavy enough to be a real contender. But I agree Sam probably could drop his goal weight down to Bryce's target.
  
  I think it will be a tight battle between Kirsten and Sam in the final!
  
  But totally agree with you. It will come down to who can go under their goal weight. It will be a very intersting final! Have they set the date for the final yet?
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  Mythor

  1 year ago

  Yes, I doubt Alison will end up being a contender because she'll have too many distractions/responsibilities at home. If her husband and Mum can continue to shoulder the majority of the burdens though, she might manage it.
  
  Bryce didn't start heavy enough to be a serious contender but he also hasn't lost weight consistently enough to do it, either. His good weeks have been pretty good but then he's had bad weeks right after. He'd have to kick that habit to be a threat at all.
  
  Kirsten's main advantage is that she's already in the lead. If she can keep pushing hard from now (TV time) to the finale then if any of the others slack off even slightly, she could very possibly just hold the lead until finale.
  
  Finale will be Thursday, 1st of May. Last episode to air will be on Sunday, which will be a weigh in and elimination night.
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  Anon

  1 year ago

  Most predictable elimination EVER!
  
  PS - Y'know, when Bryce was upset about Cosi talking to Michelle pre-elimination, I think he was peeved because Cosi wasn't even up for elimination. I think he was also peeved about Cosi being shitty that Bryce and Michelle didn't smile and do a happy dance and bow at Cosi's weight loss figure for that week.
  
  I don't think anyone would begrudge the people who are up for elimination for pleading their case with others.
  
  But I can tell you're a Bryce hater, (he doesn't move me one way or the other), so I don't know if you'll see it this way!
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  Mythor

  1 year ago

  Not so much a hater, just fair and balanced. Like Fox! ;)
  
  You could be right that Cosi was talking on behalf of someone but that's still not unprecedented and the reality is, people are always trying to sway others during pre-elimination stuff. Bryce getting shirty with Cosi over it was silly.
  It's just one example though.
  
  Only one more week, either way!
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  Cara

  1 year ago

  I have only just started watching the Biggest loser this season, so I am not entirely sure how the winner is decided. I thought it was just the contestant who lost the biggest percentage, so what does their goal weight have to do with it?
  
  Also, I didn't realise the final weigh in is held a few weeks after they go home. That should be interesting! Has there been any big changes or shocks in terms of weight loss progress once people have gone home?
  
  And thanks for the recaps!!
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  Mythor

  1 year ago

  The winner is decided solely on who loses the greatest percentage of their body weight, correct.
  The reason the goal weights are mentioned sometimes is because it's an indication of what their weight "should" be... in theory. I've never paid much attention to the goal weights, personally, as I don't think they're at all useful for working out who'll win. Some contestants set themselves absurdly optimistic goals, some set very pessmistic ones.
  It's not an overly useful way to judge whether they will be successful, in my opinion.
  
  The Finale will be filmed at least 6 weeks after they leave the House, possibly more like 8 weeks, it's not entirely certain.
  But yes, with an extra 6 or more weeks for people to lose weight in, the differences at the finale can be quite stunning. And some will undoubtedly be quite disappointing, too. It's always interesting, though!
  
  You're welcome. :-)
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  Anon

  1 year ago

  Haha, fair and balanced isn't exactly something I would call your recaps, but that's why I heart them! Entertaining!
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  Jeff

  1 year ago

  It would be great if a woman could win this year. Obviously this is their best chance to do it so far. But there's one problem with it: if a woman does win, as in the American Biggest Loser, then people will say, "Obviously this competition is totally fair and balanced." But it isn't. And as usual, I will back up my position with logic and leave personal preferences out of it.
  
  I crunched the data from the American Biggest Loser, since there have been five full seasons of data already. (The Aussie version has only two completed seasons). Here's what I found:
  
  Number of men who've lost over 50% of their bodyweight: 4
  Number of women who have done the same: 0
  
  Number of men who've lost 45-49% of their bodyweight: 7
  Number of women who've done the same: 3
  
  Number of men who've lost 40-44% of their bodyweight: 8
  Number of women who've done the same: 9
  
  Total average bodyweight loss percentage for men: 37.2%
  Total average bodyweight loss percentage for women: 31.7%
  
  I think I'm detecting a trend here. A girl did win the American BL this year, with an outstanding 47.9% bodyweight loss. However, she was lucky that there were no men who could hit 50% this year. Last season, 3 men lost a higher bodyweight % than Ali (the winner) did this year. Neil last year lost 211 freaking pounds (95.7kg) or 50.1% of his bodyweight, and he didn't win the $250k grand prize OR the $100k eliminated contestants' prize.
  
  Here's how to fix this. I know this is totally logical and leaves contestant preferences and likes and dislikes out of the equation. So it'll probably get shouted down, as most good, logical ideas do. But here's how I'd balance the competition. It's kind of like handicapping bowling scores. I would take the expected weight-loss ratios of the men vs. women (37.2% and 31.7%) and divide them. This would give me a multiplier which I could apply to adjust the female weight loss percentages. And of course I would update this multiplier with each new season of data, as any good statistician would. 37.2/31.7 = 1.17. Every female weight loss, every week, would be multiplied by this factor.
  
  I have succeeded in making the weight loss side of the competition fair. You're welcome. I'm not going to get into the men vs. women challenge side of the affair because it's too subjective. But obviously women are at a disadvantage at the challenges, and so are more likely to incur weight penalties, etc.
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  Mythor

  1 year ago

  No, handicapping is a bad idea because you can't just multiply every woman's results by the same amount to even things out. Younger women will do better than older women, and younger men will do better than older men, too. So you'd end up with a whole mess of handicapping all over the place and things would get really ugly.
  
  A woman doesn't even have to win for the declarations to start about it being fair though. Bryce said it last night in regards to Alison winning the title of Biggest Loser. In one week.
  Was completely ridiculous. Takes more than outperforming the boys for one week to win it and Bryce ought to know that.
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  Jeff

  1 year ago

  I see what you're saying. I know my solution isn't perfect, but it's better than the current situation. I don't really buy the younger vs. older people advantage thing, though. Our Season 3 BL, Erik, was 36. The Season 4 BL, Bill, was 41(!). And this year's biggest loser was 32. It could be that the younger people have more ability to lose weight (I could accept that) but that the older people are more driven. Who knows. As for Alison, you're right, you can't give her props for just one big week.
  
  She seems like the type of person who has a lot of friends at home, though. Let's hope they rally behind her at home, lighten her workload and let her work out, and give her the best chance of winning. She's still a bit of a fatty: I'd say she's actually tiny under all that. Bryce is too large and muscular to lose much more weight (he looks very studly, though). Kirsten has the same problem: look at the size of her shoulders and arms. She can't lose much more unless she does a Chris and starves herself. Garry is actually not very muscular, in my estimation. It would be interesting if he could drop down to 110kg or so at the finale, but is he driven enough? Obviously Sam's got a good chance. I actually would be pleased to see any of the remaining contestants win, as the few I didn't like are already gone.
  
  You've probably figured out that I tend to like the underdogs. I identify with them and pull for people who are persecuted. So even though I like Bryce, I think he's the only one left who has no chance of winning.
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  Mythor

  1 year ago

  No, it's really not better than the current situation. Your solution would be confusing to the viewers at home and virtually impossible to balance fairly. As you said, you'd have to keep adjusting the handicapping formula in an effort to maintain the fairness, but you would be constantly behind the curve because you couldn't base the handicapping on the results of the current season, only historical data collected from previous contestants that may or may not be a fair representation of the current crop.
  At some point you'd end up with a female Biggest Loser, no doubt at all. But with the handicapping in place, it may be by a completely ridiculous margin and yet the "real" result could show that a man really won it.
  
  Not much of a victory!
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